The next 100-year storm won't wait a century to bring major destruction

Mona Strauss was 2 years old when the Shore was hit by a Category 4 hurricane in August 1933.

She was too young to remember what happened, but she was carried out of Ocean City. They were the last family to leave the resort.

"I said to my mother: 'It's raining, and I'm getting wet,'" she said.

Strauss said she was told that during the Hurricane of 1933, flooding almost reached Berlin.

The boardwalk was destroyed. Streets were flooded. Homes and hotels were knocked off their foundations. Cars were buried in the sand. Electricity and water were cut off. Rivers and creeks were cresting over their banks. 

The floodwaters in the bays burst through a low spot on the island south of the Ocean City Boardwalk, washing away town streets, the railroad bridge, fishing camps and the long-hated barrier between Sinepuxent Bay and the Atlantic Ocean.

The Ocean City Inlet was born.

The New York Times reported that Rehoboth Beach was washed into the sea from the hurricane. The boardwalk was pounded with 15-foot waves. Lake Avenue was flooded and trees were uprooted, but the city kept its foothold.

Large and powerful storms, such as the Great Hurricane of 1933 or the nor'easter Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962, are known as 100-year storms — storms that have a 1 percent probability of occurring in a specific location in a year.

But now, experts say 100-year storms are occurring at a more frequent rate.

"Now we are seeing what was a 100-year storm in an 80-year time span," said Jessica Spaccio, climatologist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.

An event like Hurricane Harvey, which dropped 51.88 inches of rain in parts of Texas, would render Ocean City and the Delaware beaches helpless. 

Nothing the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers do during beach replenishment could prevent flooding that would overwhelm the area, said Justin Callahan, project manager for the engineers in Baltimore.

“Fifty inches of rain, this entire community will be underwater," said Joe Theobald, emergency management director for Ocean City. "We drain into the bay. That’s how the configuration is built. And when the bay is backed up, there is no place for water to go.”

There's no doubt that storms will keep coming, so residents and officials are taking action.

Millions of dollars worth of dune maintenance and beach nourishment projects help protect regional shores from the ocean's powerful waves. But flooding from the inland bays is also a focus of agencies like the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control, and the Maryland Department of the Environment.

Both states have lobbied for protecting wetlands that serve as a natural buffer between the bays and the homes and businesses on Delmarva.

"The program in our state, and throughout the nation, is designed to discourage development in wetlands," said Ben Grumbles, the secretary of the Maryland Department of Environment and chairman of the Maryland Climate Change Commission.

Still, persistent flooding continues to be an issue along the coast. St. Louis Avenue in downtown Ocean City often becomes part of the bay, as do a few low-lying pockets in northern Ocean City on the bayside. New Road in Lewes often floods at the bridge just past Hells Neck on the way into town.

READ MORE: Former Pines resident walked 7 miles to be rescued from hurricane

Water often moves across the beach and onto a stretch of Coastal Highway south of Indian River Inlet bridge, making the road impassable. In Bethany Beach, Pennsylvania Avenue often become more of a creek than a street. 

But it's more than the inconvenience of road closures for those who live in Oak Orchard, an unincorporated area between Millsboro and Long Neck that sits on the Indian River Bay.

When a storm barrels onto the Delaware coast, people are asked to evacuate voluntarily, said Steven Deery, chief of the Indian River Volunteer Fire Company.

Water is so high that it swallows mailbox posts. The flooding laps at the front doors. Roads become so impassible and treacherous that the Delaware Department of Transportation closes them down.

"Most of the people in our area know what to expect," Deery said.

Frequency of the big ones

J.D. Quillin has witnessed storms that rocked the Delmarva Peninsula.

Quillin, a member of Ocean City's fire department, was 26 and living in town when the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962 hit.

Water from the storm nearly covered his calf-high fire boots as he walked the streets, he said.

In 1962, the "Storm of the Century" was one of the 20th century's most devastating nor'easters. It brought as much as 4 feet of floodwater. Waves were as high as 25 feet. A temporary inlet was formed at 71st Street. The storm was stationary for 36 hours, causing five high tides of flooding. 

"Most of the buildings it took down were not on pilings," Quillin said. "It hit the Seascape Motel and splashed up to the roof, four or five stories high. It was hitting that hotel like it was hitting a bulkhead."

In Delaware, 1,932 homes were damaged between Fenwick Island and Dewey Beach. Flooding was 3 to 6 feet above the street. Property damage in 1962 was about $90 million, which would be more than $500 million today.

Chincoteague and Assateague Island were "completely underwater," according to the National Weather Service, with 1,200 homes destroyed in Chincoteague.  

The storm claimed seven lives in Delaware and three in Maryland.

Quillin, now 80, has always lived near Ocean City. He said the Storm of 1962 is the biggest he has been through.

But now, 100-year storms are occurring more often, particularly in the northeast region of the nation, including Maryland and Delaware, according to Spaccio, the climatologist.

READ MORE: Delmarva's brush with Hurricane Jose shows coastal vulnerability

READ MORE: Is the cost of OC, Del., beach replenishment worth it?

She says the threshold for a 100-year storm needs to be redefined often. Two Category 4 hurricanes struck the U.S. this year, the first time in recorded history this has happened in the same year.

Severe storms, in particular, winter storm events, have increased in frequency since the 1950s.

The northeast is not just slowly getting wetter, it's getting more rain in a shorter amount of time, she said.

A warmer climate can hold more moisture, leading to more rain, she said.

"And the northeast has seen a big increase," Spaccio said.

Hurricanes and nor'easters are to blame for most of the major storm damage done on Delmarva, including the inland bay flooding, said Mike Morgan, a Delaware seashore historian and a columnist for DelmarvaNow.com, the Delaware Wave and Delaware Coast Press.

While both are destructive, a nor'easter's and a hurricane's traits are different. Hurricanes are known for heavy wind, and nor'easters are known more for heavy rain.

"And even if you have only been here for a year or two, you have seen some storms," Morgan said.

'We take it seriously'

Melissa Golden of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, has owned a second home at Mallard Lakes near Fenwick Island for more than a decade.

When Superstorm Sandy, a combined hurricane and nor'easter, hit in October 2012, her unit flooded.

Golden said she feels for those affected by powerful and destructive storms such as this year's hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

"Rebuilding is a long process. There's the short term and the long term that your life will never be the same," she said. "Your property will never be the same."

Her unit has not flooded since Sandy, but she still worries for those who are going through what she has experienced.

"That’s why I feel for all the people and what they are discovering now," she said. "Figuring out what’s covered, what’s not covered, what (Federal Emergency Management Agency) will cover and dealing with insurance."

She now feels anxiety whenever a storm is coming — knowing what happened before could happen again, she said.

In Oak Orchard, hurricanes do not worry residents — it is the nor'easters that they fear,  said Deery, the local fire chief.

Nor'easters blow water into the back bays, which floods the community.

Oak Orchard can see a 7- to 8-foot rise in waters during a nor'easter. The issue is exacerbated by high tides, especially when there is a full moon.

"That's our worst time," Deery said. "They seem to hit during astronomical high tide and flood Oak Orchard."

Preparation

When Hurricane Jose passed off Delmarva in September, it damaged the dune south of Dewey Beach, an area already prone to inland bay flooding.

The threat of another massive weather event has DNREC and the Maryland Department of the Environment planning how to protect waterfronts on both bay and ocean.

Maryland has regulations in place to ensure damage from these types of events is not debilitating.

It's a growing priority in Maryland, said Grumbles, of the Maryland Department of Environment.

"We take it seriously," he said. "And it's not just the events occurring around us now."

READ MORE: Weather Channel veteran Mike Seidel on why Harvey, Irma were like few storms he's covered

Regulations to diminish storm damage are about increasing resiliency and preparedness.

To protect the Ocean City shore from erosion, efforts began in 1991 to expand the beach and dunes. Doings so allows each to absorb the impact of waves and protect structures from wave damage.

Ocean City also maintains a 3-foot freeboard limit, meaning all buildings must be at least 2 feet above the water line.

Maryland officials study FEMA flood maps and plans to assess possible risk areas and to ensure people are properly insured for flooding.

Delaware officials are also working to lessen the impact of future storm damage.

"Throughout the state of Delaware, we have regulations aimed at ensuring new developments are built out of 100-year floodplains, or if they are in it, they are properly elevated," said Mike Powell, DNREC flood program manager.

In Dewey Beach, the town has a 1-foot minimum freeboard. However, Sussex County code states "that in special flood hazard areas the permitted height may be increased by 1 foot for every 1 foot of freeboard, not to exceed 2 feet above the permitted height measured from base flood elevation."

While a healthy dune line is the best form of defense from flooding from the ocean, according to Powell, that doesn't mean dunes are indestructible.

READ MORE: Early preparation is key to weathering big storms

Delaware began its beach nourishment project in the 1980s, and three towns — Bethany Beach, South Bethany Beach and Fenwick Island — are all to undergo emergency beach replenishment this winter to repair storm damage. Their last scheduled maintenance was in 2013 after Superstorm Sandy.

Wetland preservation is another crucial way to minimize damage because wetlands are a natural buffer against flooding.

Maryland regulates wetlands to encourage responsible growth, ensuring no loss of wetlands. 

DNREC also has regulations are in place to ensure stormwater runoff doesn't create further damage to sensitive areas. This applies to the rainwater that falls on roofs, and rain and other sources of drainage through streets, parking lots and grass.

"It rushes into the streams, increases the friction and creates the catastrophic flash flooding you would have if you didn’t manage it," Powell said.

'Due for a big one'

Some businesses know it's only a matter of time before a large storm like the one in 1962 hits again.

Tom Ibachs, owner of Dolle's on the Rehoboth boardwalk, said that '62 storm was the sole one to affect his store.

The company doesn't generally worry about hurricanes because of Delaware's geographic location, protected by states that jut further out into the ocean. There have been strong winds and rain, but none that caused thousands of dollars in damages like Dolle's experienced in the past.

But the company has another concern.

"It’s the nor'easter storms we worry about," he said.

The Storm of 1962 destroyed the store, he said. When Dolle's rebuilt, the company took precautions.

The store has storm shutters that protect it from high winds. Dolle's also built the store on pilings in the event the beach is washed away.

Dolle's has been lucky, Ibachs said, but he knows danger is always possible.

"Storms could come up the coast, and everyone is talking about climate change, so maybe we won’t be so lucky in a few years," he said. "You never know."

READ MORE: Three Delaware beach towns approved for emergency nourishment

Strauss, the survivor of the 1933 hurricane, said it has been a long time since she saw a hurricane or nor'easter shape the Ocean City coast the way it did in 1933 and 1962.

But she said she knows the threat is ever present.

"I always keep saying we are due for a big one," Strauss said. "We have been lucky lately."

Information from USA Today and The News Journal was used in this report.

On Twitter @hughesg19